Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 0.420234 0.485552 0.556796 0.640156 0.734896 0.839099 0.962267
2025-08-17 0.304253 0.391712 0.496725 0.631547 0.799442 1.000982 1.260534
2025-08-24 0.239391 0.334155 0.456334 0.624216 0.847534 1.132827 1.523098
2025-08-31 0.191270 0.285864 0.415332 0.603558 0.867890 1.223143 1.733373
2025-09-07 0.171910 0.272116 0.416290 0.635932 0.958438 1.410157 2.085020
2025-09-14 0.143809 0.240522 0.386458 0.618850 0.974668 1.492628 2.295259
2025-09-21 0.121503 0.213955 0.359783 0.601702 0.986614 1.566958 2.496552
2025-09-28 0.104149 0.192508 0.337791 0.588165 1.000938 1.643720 2.705004
2025-10-05 0.094845 0.183128 0.333786 0.602380 1.059340 1.791452 3.032749
2025-10-12 0.089455 0.179763 0.339194 0.632312 1.145352 1.988572 3.452613
2025-10-19 0.082520 0.172508 0.336770 0.648018 1.208073 2.151662 3.828021
2025-10-26 0.074956 0.162939 0.328917 0.652856 1.251699 2.285229 4.162644
2025-11-02 0.067080 0.151846 0.317283 0.650124 1.282648 2.401387 4.479914
2025-11-09 0.059471 0.140232 0.303318 0.641536 1.302150 2.499245 4.773318
2025-11-16 0.052981 0.130002 0.290773 0.634110 1.322648 2.599651 5.077505
2025-11-23 0.046071 0.117761 0.272559 0.613150 1.314670 2.646568 5.286587
2025-11-30 0.044613 0.117816 0.280194 0.645997 1.415480 2.903516 5.902626
2025-12-07 0.039280 0.107846 0.264880 0.628666 1.413121 2.963196 6.148918
2025-12-14 0.034603 0.098735 0.250326 0.611267 1.408695 3.017870 6.388331
2025-12-21 0.030731 0.091049 0.238065 0.597531 1.410480 3.084413 6.654694
2025-12-28 0.028993 0.088720 0.238170 0.611955 1.474236 3.280335 7.191954
2026-01-04 0.028280 0.089084 0.244839 0.642325 1.575573 3.560078 7.916569
2026-01-11 0.026813 0.087108 0.245454 0.658260 1.645643 3.778886 8.528760